Even as Iranian missiles and drones have struck military and civilian sites across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in recent days, the major Gulf monarchies continue to show remarkable restraint and have not launched any direct counter-strikes against Iranian territory. This hesitation comes amid escalating tensions that have already caused significant disruptions in the region.

Security analysts point out that these nations remain heavily reliant on American air and naval protection under long-standing defense pacts, while fearing that any aggressive move could provoke devastating Iranian retaliation targeting their vital oil refineries and export terminals. Experts also note that the Gulf states are investing heavily in upgrading their own defense capabilities to reduce this dependency over time.

In addition, Gulf leaders are concerned that once Iran’s military infrastructure is sufficiently degraded by U.S. and Israeli operations, Washington might reduce its regional presence, leaving them exposed; therefore they prefer to focus on defensive interception systems and quiet diplomatic back-channels. These back-channels involve discreet communications through neutral parties to de-escalate without public confrontation.

This calculated caution reflects a broader strategic calculus in which economic stability and regime survival take precedence over immediate revenge, even amid mounting domestic pressure to respond forcefully. Public sentiment in these countries is mixed, with some calling for unity against Iran while others prioritize avoiding a full-scale war that could devastate economies.