Western military intelligence assessments that surfaced this weekend blew up Washington’s triumphalist narrative. Despite daily attacks by the United States and Israel since February 28, Tehran maintains an offensive capability that worries analysts.

The key was preparation. Iranians hid their arsenals in caves and underground bunkers before the war broke out. Since the ceasefire took effect on April 8 alone, more than 100 launcher systems that had been concealed underground have been recovered.

And the numbers could get even better. Iran is working to retrieve missiles buried under the rubble of bombed depots and underground bases. The most optimistic estimates for Tehran indicate it could reclaim up to 70% of its prewar arsenal.

US officials quoted by the Wall Street Journal were blunt: Iran “has more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future”. A phrase that dismantles the White House’s triumphalist statements about a “militarily destroyed” Iran.