Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Beijing on April 15 was no formality. He met with Xi Jinping and sealed what he called “closer strategic coordination” between Moscow and Beijing. His words were clear: the relationship is “unshakeable in the face of any storm” and acts as a “stabilizer” in the Middle East crisis.

The military context isn’t new. In February, Russia, China and Iran ran joint naval exercises, “Maritime Security Belt 2026,” right in the Strait of Hormuz. And Moscow already showed what it’s willing to do: in January it deployed a submarine to protect the tanker Marinera near Venezuela against the U.S. Coast Guard.

Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports has disrupted 20% of global oil supply. China depends on the Strait for nearly half its imported crude. A Chinese tanker, the Rich Starry, already crossed the blockade untouched, but Washington’s next move is uncertain.