Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into the conflict’s greatest geopolitical weapon. Its message is clear: “friendly countries” can transit, but those linked to the US and Israel are blocked. FM Araghchi said on April 1: “We cannot let our enemies use our territorial waters for commerce.”

The list of countries with authorized passage keeps growing: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Turkey and South Africa all have transit agreements. Japan, France and Italy are in direct talks with Tehran. Iran’s parliament even approved a plan to formalize tolls on ships passing through.

Analysts describe it as a “permission-based regime.” Fewer than 100 vessels have crossed since the war began, when up to 135 passed daily before the conflict. A third of those that have transited are linked to Iran. Kuwaiti analysts put it plainly: “This is not a reopening. It is a selective regime where passage is granted to non-hostile countries.”