Recent analysis reveals a critical misstep in Russia’s strategy against Ukraine: the spectacular failure of its long-standing hybrid warfare campaign. For years, the Kremlin meticulously cultivated a “second war”—a sophisticated blend of disinformation and covert influence operations—designed to destabilize Ukraine from within and pave the way for a swift political collapse. However, this potent weapon has not only backfired but has also left Moscow in a state of panic.

The core of this failed strategy involved extensive disinformation campaigns, exemplified by fabricated stories intended to dehumanize Ukrainians and justify Russian aggression. Simultaneously, the FSB and GRU invested heavily in building intricate agent networks across Ukraine, aiming to facilitate an easy takeover during the 2022 invasion. Yet, these efforts were met with unexpected resilience.

The primary reasons for this colossal failure are multifaceted. Eight years of conflict between 2014 and 2022 inadvertently hardened Ukrainian society, fostering a “critical reflex” that rendered its citizens largely immune to Russian propaganda. Furthermore, Russia’s own intelligence agencies, particularly the FSB, provided assessments that were more aligned with Moscow’s desires than with the grim reality on the ground, severely underestimating Ukraine’s unwavering will to fight. Ukraine also demonstrated remarkable technical sophistication in its countermeasures, launching successful intelligence operations like “Operation Spiderweb,” which inflicted billions in damages on Russian military airbases